Fatah Party Picks Abbas

In a not very surprising move, the ruling Fatah party picked Mahmoud Abbas as its candidate to replace Yasser Arafat as head of the Palestinian Authority. While I believe that he will probably win an election, I don't think he has the popular following to push through the proper reforms. He is part of the old regime, and though perhaps better (i.e., less corrupt) than his peers, the increasingly younger Palestinian population does not view him as a true leader. On top of that, he is considerably moderate in a time where relatively conservative and extreme orators rule the hearts and minds of the Muslim world. To make matters worse, no matter who takes power, there will almost definitely be power struggle among the Palestinian security forces and terrorist groups, essentially plunging the state into civil war.

If Israel, on the other hand, were to present Abbas (or whoever else is elected) the same agreement that was offered to Arafat at Camp David (the West Bank, Gaza Strip, and the splitting of Jerusalem), things may go differently. I believe the Palestinian people truly want peace, and I think they will respect and follow any leader who gets it for them. Below is a brief rundown of each of the serious and not-so serious candidates. From MSNBC:



Ahmed Qureia
The current Palestinian prime minister, 66, was a longtime ally of Arafat and the key negotiator in secret talks with Israelis in Oslo that led to interim peace deals in 1993.

Also known as Abu Ala, Qureia gained a reputation as one of the more skilled Palestinian politicians in his role as speaker of the Palestinian legislature, but unlike Arafat lacks charisma and has little popularity with the public. As prime minister he threatened to resign several times over Arafat's failure to give him sufficient powers, but was always persuaded to stay.

Mahmoud Abbas
Qureia's predecessor as Palestinian prime minister, Abbas (also known as Abu Mazen), resigned in September, 2003, after only four months at the post due to a power struggle with Arafat.

Named head of the Palestine Liberation Organization after Yasser Arafat's death, Abbas co-authored interim peace deals a decade ago that gave Palestinians limited self-rule. Abbas, 69, has avoided public attention as much as Arafat sought it. He has been an outspoken critic of the use of violence during the Palestinian uprising (intifada) and tried to get Islamic militants to end attacks on Israel. Like Qureia, he lacks a popular following.

Marwan Barghouti
The former head of the Fatah movement's young guard, Barghouti is seen as a possible successor to Arafat in the long term, but any immediate succession plans would be crimped by the fact that he is currently serving five consecutive life sentences in an Israeli prison for orchestrating murders, a charge he denies.

The fiery orator is widely regarded as the grassroots political leader of the uprising begun in 2000 and helped coordinate the first uprising that ended in 1993. There's no guarantee that Barghouti, who supports a two-state solution, would get parole. A poll by Bir Zeit University in the West Bank indicates Barghouti would easily defeat a Hamas candidate in presidential elections.


Jibril Rajoub
The head of the Preventative Security service in the West Bank, Rajoub, 51, is seen as a pragmatist: he supports the intifada, but opposes Palestinian attacks within Israel and has sought to clamp down on Hamas and Islamic Jihad. Rajoub represents the younger generation of Arafat's leadership and any succession by him would likely mean a continuation of the status quo.

Mohammed Dahlan
The former interior minister and security chief in Gaza currently lacks an official post, but remains one of the most powerful of several strongmen in a territory ridden by factional fighting. Dahlan has been courted by international mediators as someone who could instill order in Gaza after a planned Israeli pullout next year.

Rauhi Fattouh
As the Palestinian parliament speaker, he was sworn in following Arafat's death as Palestinian Authority president for at least 60 days. But Fattouh is widely regarded as a bland political backbencher and unlikely to hold on to power during a turbulent transition period. The 55-year-old has been an Arafat loyalist but took the unusual step of suspending parliament sessions for two months to protest at the leader's foot-dragging over ratifying reform measures.