Fuzzy Math

Cragg Hines of the Houston Chronicle takes a look at Bush's mathematical magic

Almost half — 47 percent — of those questioned in a survey for the Washington Post, Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation and Harvard University believe that Social Security has major problems but is not in crisis. (The survey is the product of 1,236 randomly selected adults nationwide interviewed Feb. 3-6 and another 1,231 interviews Feb. 4-6).

Even if the president is correct in his dire predictions, perception being reality in politics, public doubts will make it difficult for Bush to press what would be historic revisions of the iconic plan through Congress.

What's to blame for this credibility gap, the chasm between the president's repeated cries that the sky is falling and the public's refusal to buy it?

Could it be the administration's penchant for numeric funny business? Say, a budget that omits future funding for the occupation of Iraq or the financing of Bush's proposed semi-privatization of the Social Security system. And those doozies are just a couple of things that have been left out of or fudged in a single document.

The White House has gone from "fuzzy math" (Bush's description of Al Gore's figuring in the 2000 presidential debates) to math that is so indistinct and imprecise as to resemble the matted coat of some extinct quadruped.

That's it. We have arrived in the fiscal realm of the wooly mammoth.

Even the president's own party has been had. In the last week we've learned that the Medicare prescription drug plan, instead of costing $400 billion over 10 years (2004-2013, a period that included two years when the plan was not to be up and running) will cost $720 billion (2006-2015, the first decade of its actual operation).

The conservative Heritage Foundation offered a quiz on the point: "Question: How much money will it cost taxpayers to give all Medicare patients prescription drug coverage over the next 10 years? Answer: Depends on which 10 years."

Bush's Approval Rating Drops: Shocking!

From the AP:

Public confidence in President Bush's job performance and the nation's direction slipped in the opening weeks of his second term, particularly among people 50 and older, the poll found.

Adults were evenly divided on Bush's job performance in January, but now 54 percent disapprove and 45 percent approve. The number who think the country is headed down the wrong track increased from 51 percent to 58 percent in the past month.

The poll, conducted for the AP by Ipsos-Public Affairs, was taken after the president's State of the Union address and the elections in Iraq and at the start of a heated debate over creating personal Social Security accounts.

Older Americans, especially those 65 and above, were most responsible for the declining confidence and approval numbers. Middle-aged people between 30 and 50 were about evenly split on Bush's job performance.

What a bunch of flip-floppers these geezers are.

Why America is Full of Fatties

I've been saying this for years: apple juice is making America fat. Seriously. The US is the only country that regularly feeds the stuff to our kids, and we also have the highest obesity rate in children in the world. Coincidence? I think not. From CNN/AP:

A growing body of science is linking sweet drinks, natural or otherwise, to a host of child health concerns, everything from bulging bellies to tooth decay.

"All of these beverages are largely the same. They are 100 percent sugar," Dr. David Ludwig, an expert on pediatric obesity at Children's Hospital Boston, said recently. "Juice is only minimally better than soda."

The trouble is that parents who are quick to limit a child's soft drink consumption often overlook or even encourage juice indulgence thanks to the beverage's good-for-you image.

But that image can be overstated. Though healthy in moderation, juice essentially is water and sugar. In fact, a 12-ounce bottle of grape soda has 159 calories. The same amount of unsweetened grape juice packs 228 calories.

. . .The danger of juice is that too much can throw off the balance of calories and nutrients children need, according to Dr. Terrill Bravender, director of adolescent medicine at Duke University Medical Center.

In very young children, too much juice cuts the appetite for nutritionally superior breast milk or formula. In older children, it often supplements other foods, potentially adding hundreds of excess calories.

Part of the problem is that the calories in juice are so concentrated. Just half a cup (4 ounces) of apple juice has 60 calories, the same as a whole apple, but without the fiber that makes fruit filling.